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Nigeria vs Ghana — Friendlies 2026

Nigeria
Nigeria
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ghana
Ghana
3/22/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nigeria46%
×Draw30%
Ghana24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nigeria
1.22
Ghana
0.79

Nigeria creates 54% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

creates per match

Nigeria
0.64
Ghana
0.85

allows per match

Nigeria
0.73
Ghana
1.80

finishing

Nigeria+0.00on par
Ghana+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nigeria ↓

Ghana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nigeria or draw
76%
Nigeria or Ghana
70%
Draw or Ghana
54%

Winning margin

Nigeria wins by 2+
21%
Ghana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nigeria 1+ goals
70%
Nigeria 2+ goals
34%
Nigeria 3+ goals
12%
Ghana 1+ goals
55%
Ghana 2+ goals
19%
Ghana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nigeria (draw refunded)
66%
Ghana (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nigeria at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Ghana away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nigeria attack 0.64 + Ghana defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ghana attack 0.85 + Nigeria defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nigeria scores more
46%
level
30%
Ghana scores more
24%

Nigeria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nigeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nigeria vs Ghana

Nigeria beat Ghana 2-1 in Friendlies on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.