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Ghana vs Nigeria — Friendlies 2026

Ghana
Ghana
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Nigeria
Nigeria
5/28/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Gtech Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ghana55%
×Draw26%
Nigeria19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ghana
1.50
Nigeria
0.75

Ghana creates 100% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ghana
1.33
Nigeria
1.00

allows per match

Ghana
0.50
Nigeria
1.67

finishing

Ghana+0.00on par
Nigeria+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ghana ↓

Nigeria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ghana or draw
81%
Ghana or Nigeria
74%
Draw or Nigeria
45%

Winning margin

Ghana wins by 2+
29%
Nigeria wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ghana 1+ goals
78%
Ghana 2+ goals
44%
Ghana 3+ goals
19%
Nigeria 1+ goals
53%
Nigeria 2+ goals
17%
Nigeria 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ghana (draw refunded)
75%
Nigeria (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ghana at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Nigeria away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ghana attack 1.33 + Nigeria defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nigeria attack 1.00 + Ghana defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ghana scores more
55%
level
26%
Nigeria scores more
19%

Ghana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ghana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Ghana 1–2 Nigeria

Nigeria beat Ghana 2-1 in Friendlies on May 28, 2025.

The match was played at Gtech Community Stadium in Brentford, Middlesex.