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Niger vs Egypt — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Niger
Niger
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Egypt
Egypt
3/23/2019Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 7Stade Général Seyni Kountché (Niamey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Niger25%
×Draw35%
Egypt41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger
0.67
Egypt
0.95

Egypt creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Niger
0.67
Egypt
0.89

allows per match

Niger
1.00
Egypt
0.67

finishing

Niger+0.00on par
Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger ↓

Egypt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–119%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Niger or draw
59%
Niger or Egypt
65%
Draw or Egypt
75%

Winning margin

Niger wins by 2+
7%
Egypt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Niger 1+ goals
49%
Niger 2+ goals
15%
Niger 3+ goals
3%
Egypt 1+ goals
61%
Egypt 2+ goals
25%
Egypt 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Niger (draw refunded)
38%
Egypt (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Egypt away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger attack 0.67 + Egypt defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Egypt attack 0.89 + Niger defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Niger scores more
25%
level
35%
Egypt scores more
41%

Egypt at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niger vs Egypt

Niger and Egypt drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Général Seyni Kountché (Niamey).