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Egypt vs Niger — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Egypt
Egypt
FT
6 – 0
Niger
Niger
9/8/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Borg El Arab Stadium (Borg El Arab)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Egypt74%
×Draw16%
Niger10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egypt
2.41
Niger
0.76

Egypt creates 217% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Egypt
2.15
Niger
0.67

allows per match

Egypt
0.85
Niger
2.67

finishing

Egypt+0.00on par
Niger+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egypt ↓

Niger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Egypt or draw
90%
Egypt or Niger
84%
Draw or Niger
26%

Winning margin

Egypt wins by 2+
51%
Niger wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Egypt 1+ goals
91%
Egypt 2+ goals
69%
Egypt 3+ goals
43%
Niger 1+ goals
53%
Niger 2+ goals
18%
Niger 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Egypt (draw refunded)
88%
Niger (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egypt at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Niger away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egypt attack 2.15 + Niger defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.41

Niger attack 0.67 + Egypt defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Egypt scores more
74%
level
16%
Niger scores more
10%

Egypt at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Egypt 6–0 Niger

Egypt beat Niger 6-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Borg El Arab Stadium (Borg El Arab).