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Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC — NPFL 2019

Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Barau FC
Barau FC
12/28/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 19Bako Kontagora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Niger Tornadoes54%
×Draw33%
Barau FC13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger Tornadoes
1.12
Barau FC
0.39

Niger Tornadoes creates 187% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 19 away

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes
1.24
Barau FC
0.26

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes
0.52
Barau FC
1.00

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par
Barau FC+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Barau FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw
87%
Niger Tornadoes or Barau FC
67%
Draw or Barau FC
46%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
24%
Barau FC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
67%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
31%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
10%
Barau FC 1+ goals
32%
Barau FC 2+ goals
6%
Barau FC 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
81%
Barau FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.52 · 96 matches

Barau FC away — creates 0.26, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.24 + Barau FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Barau FC attack 0.26 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more
54%
level
33%
Barau FC scores more
13%

Niger Tornadoes at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Niger Tornadoes 2–0 Barau FC

Niger Tornadoes beat Barau FC 2-0 in NPFL on December 28, 2025.

The match was played at Bako Kontagora Stadium.