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Barau FC vs Niger Tornadoes — NPFL 2019

Barau FC
Barau FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
1/14/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barau FC61%
×Draw26%
Niger Tornadoes14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barau FC
1.53
Niger Tornadoes
0.58

Barau FC creates 164% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 96 away

creates per match

Barau FC
1.53
Niger Tornadoes
0.58

allows per match

Barau FC
0.58
Niger Tornadoes
1.53

finishing

Barau FC+0.00on par
Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barau FC ↓

Niger Tornadoes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Barau FC or draw
86%
Barau FC or Niger Tornadoes
74%
Draw or Niger Tornadoes
39%

Winning margin

Barau FC wins by 2+
32%
Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Barau FC 1+ goals
78%
Barau FC 2+ goals
45%
Barau FC 3+ goals
20%
Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
44%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
12%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Barau FC (draw refunded)
81%
Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barau FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Niger Tornadoes away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.53 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barau FC attack 1.53 + Niger Tornadoes defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.53

Niger Tornadoes attack 0.58 + Barau FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Barau FC scores more
61%
level
26%
Niger Tornadoes scores more
14%

Barau FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Barau FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Barau FC 2–1 Niger Tornadoes

Barau FC beat Niger Tornadoes 2-1 in NPFL on January 14, 2026.