Niendorfer TSV 4–1 Harksheide: Result & Stats

Niendorfer TSV

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Harksheide

9/8/2024

League #745 · Hamburg - 7Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Niendorfer TSV63%

×Draw17%

Harksheide20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niendorfer TSVExpected goals in this matchHarksheide

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

1.64

Niendorfer TSV

2.90

Harksheide

1.64

Niendorfer TSV creates 77% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

3.00

creates per match

1.60

1.67

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV

3.00

Harksheide

1.60

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV

1.67

Harksheide

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niendorfer TSV+0.00on par

Harksheide+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV ↓

Harksheide →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV or draw

80%

Niendorfer TSV or Harksheide

83%

Draw or Harksheide

37%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV wins by 2+

43%

Harksheide wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV 1+ goals

94%

Niendorfer TSV 2+ goals

78%

Niendorfer TSV 3+ goals

54%

Harksheide 1+ goals

81%

Harksheide 2+ goals

49%

Harksheide 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV (draw refunded)

76%

Harksheide (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Harksheide away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV attack 3.00 + Harksheide defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.90

Harksheide attack 1.60 + Niendorfer TSV defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Niendorfer TSV scores more

63%

level

17%

Harksheide scores more

20%

Niendorfer TSV at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Niendorfer TSV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff