Harksheide 0–5 Niendorfer TSV: Result & Stats

Harksheide

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Niendorfer TSV

2/16/2024

League #745 · Hamburg - 24Kunstrasenplatz collatz+schwartz Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Harksheide10%

×Draw12%

Niendorfer TSV78%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HarksheideExpected goals in this matchNiendorfer TSV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

3.48

Harksheide

1.23

Niendorfer TSV

3.48

Niendorfer TSV creates 183% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

3.20

3.75

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Harksheide

1.25

Niendorfer TSV

3.20

allows per match

Harksheide

3.75

Niendorfer TSV

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harksheide+0.00on par

Niendorfer TSV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harksheide ↓

Niendorfer TSV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–37%

0–46%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Harksheide or draw

22%

Harksheide or Niendorfer TSV

88%

Draw or Niendorfer TSV

90%

Winning margin

Harksheide wins by 2+

4%

Niendorfer TSV wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Harksheide 1+ goals

71%

Harksheide 2+ goals

35%

Harksheide 3+ goals

13%

Niendorfer TSV 1+ goals

97%

Niendorfer TSV 2+ goals

85%

Niendorfer TSV 3+ goals

65%

Draw no bet

Harksheide (draw refunded)

11%

Niendorfer TSV (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harksheide at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Niendorfer TSV away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harksheide attack 1.25 + Niendorfer TSV defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Niendorfer TSV attack 3.20 + Harksheide defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Harksheide scores more

10%

level

12%

Niendorfer TSV scores more

78%

Niendorfer TSV at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Niendorfer TSV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff