Niendorfer TSV U19 1–1 Magdeburg U19

Niendorfer TSV U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Magdeburg U19

A. Yago 9'

J. Weigel 15'

11/2/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 10Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Niendorfer TSV U1924%

×Draw19%

Magdeburg U1957%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niendorfer TSV U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

2.58

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.65

Magdeburg U19

2.58

Magdeburg U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 62 away

0.97

creates per match

2.02

3.13

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

0.97

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.13

Magdeburg U19

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV U19 or draw

43%

Niendorfer TSV U19 or Magdeburg U19

81%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

76%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

11%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

81%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

49%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

23%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

92%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

72%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV U19 at home — creates 0.97, concedes 3.13 · 30 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 0.97 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.65

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

24%

level

19%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

57%

Magdeburg U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Yago

15'

J. Weigel

46'

L. Schmökel← Y. Schimmelpfennig

57'

B. Schiemann← T. Ogbidi

70'

P. Radom← T. Hempel

76'

A. Islamoglu← M. Gries

90'

T. Hohmann← F. Salihoglu

Niendorfer

Magdeburg

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Prohn

76'▲A. Islamoglu←▼M. Gries

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

IslamogluApauAhmadiGraefeMensahGumpertEngelmann

Manager: T. Hoßmang

46'▲L. Schmökel←▼Y. Schimmelpfennig

57'▲B. Schiemann←▼T. Ogbidi

70'▲P. Radom←▼T. Hempel

90'▲T. Hohmann←▼F. Salihoglu

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

SchmökelSchiemannRadomHohmannBöhmVetterAkmestanlı