Magdeburg U19 2–1 Niendorfer TSV U19

Magdeburg U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Niendorfer TSV U19

A. Kanther 90+3' (pen)

M. Temp 78'

M. Zoch 62'

2/16/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 17Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Magdeburg U1963%

×Draw17%

Niendorfer TSV U1919%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchNiendorfer TSV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.48

Magdeburg U19

2.75

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.48

Magdeburg U19 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 29 away

2.37

creates per match

0.97

2.00

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

Niendorfer TSV U19

0.97

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Niendorfer TSV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

81%

Magdeburg U19 or Niendorfer TSV U19

83%

Draw or Niendorfer TSV U19

37%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

43%

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

93%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

75%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

51%

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

77%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

43%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Niendorfer TSV U19 away — creates 0.97, concedes 3.14 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.75

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 0.97 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

63%

level

17%

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

19%

Magdeburg U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

A. Tourgaidis← S. Omar

60'

J. Lehmann← L. Menke

60'

M. Timm← A. Cevdet

62'

M. Zoch

72'

M. Hommel← F. Salihoglu

72'

T. Ogbidi← M. Schweda

78'

A. Abdul Rauf← O. Masalci

78'

M. Temp

90'

H. Rückert← M. Temp

90+3'

A. KantherPenalty

Magdeburg

Niendorfer

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Temp

▼

Salihoglu

Manager: T. Hoßmang

60'▲J. Lehmann←▼L. Menke

72'▲M. Hommel←▼F. Salihoglu

72'▲T. Ogbidi←▼M. Schweda

90'▲H. Rückert←▼M. Temp

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

LehmannHommelOgbidiRückertBerishaZentrichHempel

Manager: A. Prohn

55'▲A. Tourgaidis←▼S. Omar

60'▲M. Timm←▼A. Cevdet

78'▲A. Abdul Rauf←▼O. Masalci

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

TourgaidisTimmRaufAltuntasCherifWeber