Niendorfer TSV U19 1–6 Hertha BSC U19

Niendorfer TSV U19

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Hertha BSC U19

P. Mahncke 71'

S. Ziemer 89'

J. Ameti 84'

F. Haxha 82'

J. Dirkner 74'

E. Tekin 30'

J. Michelbrink 25'

12/7/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 14Wolfgang Krohn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Niendorfer TSV U1914%

×Draw16%

Hertha BSC U1970%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niendorfer TSV U19Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

2.80

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.22

Hertha BSC U19

2.80

Hertha BSC U19 creates 130% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 77 away

1.00

creates per match

2.47

3.13

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.00

Hertha BSC U19

2.47

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.13

Hertha BSC U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV U19 or draw

30%

Niendorfer TSV U19 or Hertha BSC U19

84%

Draw or Hertha BSC U19

86%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

5%

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

70%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

34%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

12%

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

94%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

76%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.13 · 31 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 1.00 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.47 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

14%

level

16%

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

70%

Hertha BSC U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

J. Michelbrink

30'

E. Tekin

53'

J. Ameti← J. Michelbrink

68'

D. Berendsohn← N. Aslanidis

71'

P. Mahncke

74'

J. Dirkner

75'

H. Müller← J. Mensah

78'

T. Engelmann← A. Abdul Rauf

79'

F. Haxha← E. Tekin

79'

P. Gollombeck← M. Winkler

82'

F. Haxha

83'

N. Tomerius← J. Dirkner

84'

J. Ameti

86'

A. Islamoglu← L. Althausen

89'

S. Ziemer

Niendorfer

Hertha

⚽

⚽

▼

Michelbri

⚽

▼

Dirkner

Werthmüll

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Prohn

68'▲D. Berendsohn←▼N. Aslanidis

75'▲H. Müller←▼J. Mensah

78'▲T. Engelmann←▼A. Abdul Rauf

86'▲A. Islamoglu←▼L. Althausen

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

BerendsohnMüllerEngelmannIslamogluGraefeArizanovGries

Manager: M. Hartmann

53'▲J. Ameti←▼J. Michelbrink

79'▲F. Haxha←▼E. Tekin

79'▲P. Gollombeck←▼M. Winkler

83'▲N. Tomerius←▼J. Dirkner

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

AmetiHaxhaGollombeckTomeriusWilliamsSchubertEbert

U19 Bundesliga: Niendorfer TSV U19 1–6 Hertha BSC U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Niendorfer TSV U19 6-1 in U19 Bundesliga on December 7, 2019.

Goals: J. Michelbrink (25'), E. Tekin (30'), P. Mahncke (71'), J. Dirkner (74'), F. Haxha (82'), J. Ameti (84'), S. Ziemer (89').

The match was played at Wolfgang Krohn Arena in Hamburg.

Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Niendorfer TSV U19 1–6 Hertha BSC U19