Hertha BSC U19 7–0 Niendorfer TSV U19

Hertha BSC U19

FT

7 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Niendorfer TSV U19

J. Ngankam 88', 86', 56', 36' (pen)

D. Jastrzembski 87'

M. Ramić 77'

J. Albrecht 21'

11/10/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 11Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hertha BSC U1970%

×Draw15%

Niendorfer TSV U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSC U19Expected goals in this matchNiendorfer TSV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.29

Hertha BSC U19

2.96

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.29

Hertha BSC U19 creates 129% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 29 away

2.84

creates per match

1.00

1.59

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19

2.84

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.00

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19

1.59

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Niendorfer TSV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw

86%

Hertha BSC U19 or Niendorfer TSV U19

85%

Draw or Niendorfer TSV U19

30%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

50%

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

95%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

79%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

55%

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

72%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

37%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

Niendorfer TSV U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.07 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.84 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.96

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 1.00 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

70%

level

15%

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

14%

Hertha BSC U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

J. Albrecht

36'

J. NgankamPenalty

46'

A. Altuntas← N. Philipp

46'

A. Karabey← A. Hartmann

56'

J. Ngankam

67'

M. Morgenstern← M. Kastrati

67'

T. Gözüsirin← J. Michelbrink

72'

R. Königsdörffer← R. Werthmüller

75'

77'

77'

81'

86'

87'

88'

Hertha

Niendorfer

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽4

▼

Manager: M. Hartmann

67'▲M. Morgenstern←▼M. Kastrati

67'▲T. Gözüsirin←▼J. Michelbrink

72'▲R. Königsdörffer←▼R. Werthmüller

81'▲D. Chung←▼E. Tamim

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

MorgensternGözüsirinKönigsdörfferChungKlatteGurschkeZiemer

Manager: A. Prohn

46'▲A. Altuntas←▼N. Philipp

46'▲A. Karabey←▼A. Hartmann

75'▲A. Cevdet←▼S. Omar

77'▲J. Jaeger←▼M. Zoch

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

AltuntasKarabeyCevdetJaegerTourgaidisKönigAkkus