Niendorfer TSV U19 0–4 Hamburger SV U19

Niendorfer TSV U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Hamburger SV U19

R. Velasco 78'

F. Alidou 61'

P. Beke 50'

J. Kilo 47'

8/24/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 4Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Niendorfer TSV U1919%

×Draw18%

Hamburger SV U1963%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niendorfer TSV U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.62

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.39

Hamburger SV U19

2.62

Hamburger SV U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 79 away

0.97

creates per match

2.10

3.13

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

0.97

Hamburger SV U19

2.10

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.13

Hamburger SV U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV U19 or draw

37%

Niendorfer TSV U19 or Hamburger SV U19

82%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

81%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

8%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

75%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

40%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

16%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

93%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

73%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV U19 at home — creates 0.97, concedes 3.13 · 30 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.81 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 0.97 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.10 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

19%

level

18%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

63%

Hamburger SV U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Abdul Rauf← T. Backhaus

47'

50'

58'

61'

66'

E. Mirchev← J. Fabisch

76'

R. Velasco← P. Beke

78'

R. Velasco

82'

E. Ghubasaryan← A. Suhonen

89'

V. Zalli← F. Alidou

Niendorfer

Hamburger

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Beke

Pakia

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Prohn

46'▲A. Abdul Rauf←▼T. Backhaus

58'▲M. Lahrtz←▼M. Gries

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

RaufLahrtzIslamogluBerendsohnMaksimovicMensahWeber

Manager: D. Petrowsky

66'▲E. Mirchev←▼J. Fabisch

76'▲R. Velasco←▼P. Beke

82'▲E. Ghubasaryan←▼A. Suhonen

89'▲V. Zalli←▼F. Alidou

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

MirchevVelascoGhubasaryanZalliDamaschkeLundFreudenberg