Hamburger SV U19 5–0 Niendorfer TSV U19

Hamburger SV U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Niendorfer TSV U19

E. Krasniqi 77'

O. Heil 73', 8'

O. Wohlers 53'

P. Beke 15'

12/1/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 13Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hamburger SV U1967%

×Draw16%

Niendorfer TSV U1916%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchNiendorfer TSV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.82

1.34

Hamburger SV U19

2.82

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.34

Hamburger SV U19 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 29 away

2.49

creates per match

0.97

1.71

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.49

Niendorfer TSV U19

0.97

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.71

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Niendorfer TSV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

84%

Hamburger SV U19 or Niendorfer TSV U19

84%

Draw or Niendorfer TSV U19

33%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

47%

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

94%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

77%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

52%

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

74%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

39%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.71 · 76 matches

Niendorfer TSV U19 away — creates 0.97, concedes 3.14 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.49 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.82

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 0.97 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

67%

level

16%

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

16%

Hamburger SV U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

O. Heil

15'

P. Beke

46'

A. Abdul Rauf← S. Omar

53'

O. Wohlers

60'

P. Rieckmann← J. Jaeger

61'

H. Müller← A. Altuntas

68'

I. Isler← A. Suhonen

71'

A. Tourgaidis← N. Philipp

73'

O. Heil

77'

K. Amorin← O. Heil

77'

L. Borges← E. Krasniqi

77'

E. Krasniqi

81'

V. Brandis← E. Ghubasaryan

Hamburger

Niendorfer

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Heil

▼

Ghubasary

⚽

Wohlers

⚽

▼

Krasniqi

⚽

Beke

Hein

Manager: D. Petrowsky

68'▲I. Isler←▼A. Suhonen

77'▲K. Amorin←▼O. Heil

77'▲L. Borges←▼E. Krasniqi

81'▲V. Brandis←▼E. Ghubasaryan

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

IslerAmorinBorgesBrandisHarrMuhlack

Manager: A. Prohn

46'▲A. Abdul Rauf←▼S. Omar

60'▲P. Rieckmann←▼J. Jaeger

61'▲H. Müller←▼A. Altuntas

71'▲A. Tourgaidis←▼N. Philipp

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

RaufRieckmannMüllerTourgaidisCevdetSallahMasalci

Match Recap: Hamburger SV U19 vs Niendorfer TSV U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat Niendorfer TSV U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on December 1, 2018.

Goals: O. Heil (8', 73'), P. Beke (15'), O. Wohlers (53'), E. Krasniqi (77').

The match was played at Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage in Hamburg.

Hamburger SV U19 vs Niendorfer TSV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hamburger SV U19 vs Niendorfer TSV U19