Niendorfer TSV U19 3–1 Energie Cottbus U19

Niendorfer TSV U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Energie Cottbus U19

D. Abdullatif 31'

N. Aslanidis 30', 24'

T. Mertens 37'

11/23/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 12Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Niendorfer TSV U1927%

×Draw20%

Energie Cottbus U1953%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niendorfer TSV U19Expected goals in this matchEnergie Cottbus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

2.29

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.59

Energie Cottbus U19

2.29

Energie Cottbus U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 56 away

1.00

creates per match

1.45

3.13

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.00

Energie Cottbus U19

1.45

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.13

Energie Cottbus U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV U19 ↓

Energie Cottbus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV U19 or draw

47%

Niendorfer TSV U19 or Energie Cottbus U19

80%

Draw or Energie Cottbus U19

73%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

12%

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

80%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

47%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

21%

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals

90%

Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals

66%

Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.13 · 31 matches

Energie Cottbus U19 away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.18 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 1.00 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.45 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

27%

level

20%

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more

53%

Energie Cottbus U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Energie Cottbus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

30'

31'

37'

61'

J. Mensah← P. Mahncke

63'

E. Kotrri← P. Jesse

69'

A. Abdul Rauf← D. Berendsohn

74'

V. Brodehi← A. Ostach

79'

J. Sietan← S. Tloczynski

86'

R. Spreitzer← T. Mertens

87'

A. Cevdet← N. Aslanidis

90'

N. Gumpert← H. Müller

Niendorfer

Energie

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Prohn

61'▲J. Mensah←▼P. Mahncke

69'▲A. Abdul Rauf←▼D. Berendsohn

87'▲A. Cevdet←▼N. Aslanidis

90'▲N. Gumpert←▼H. Müller

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

MensahRaufCevdetGumpertApauGraefeBackhaus

Manager: S. Abt

63'▲E. Kotrri←▼P. Jesse

74'▲V. Brodehi←▼A. Ostach

79'▲J. Sietan←▼S. Tloczynski

86'▲R. Spreitzer←▼T. Mertens

Energie Cottbus U19 substitutes

KotrriBrodehiSietanSpreitzerDaoudJankeRobinson