Energie Cottbus U19 vs Niendorfer TSV U19

Energie Cottbus U19

CANC

09:00

Niendorfer TSV U19

5/2/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 25Stadion an der Lipezker Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Energie Cottbus U1962%

×Draw19%

Niendorfer TSV U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Energie Cottbus U19Expected goals in this matchNiendorfer TSV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.32

Energie Cottbus U19

2.45

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.32

Energie Cottbus U19 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 29 away

1.83

creates per match

1.00

1.65

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.83

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.00

allows per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.65

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus U19 ↓

Niendorfer TSV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus U19 or draw

80%

Energie Cottbus U19 or Niendorfer TSV U19

81%

Draw or Niendorfer TSV U19

38%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+

40%

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals

91%

Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals

70%

Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals

44%

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

73%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

38%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

Niendorfer TSV U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.07 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.83 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.45

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 1.00 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more

62%

level

19%

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

20%

Energie Cottbus U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Energie Cottbus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff