Niendorfer TSV U19 0–2 Dynamo Dresden U19

Niendorfer TSV U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamo Dresden U19

V. Kušej 79' (pen)

C. Michelsen 71'

8/11/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1Sportanlage Sachsenweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Niendorfer TSV U1922%

×Draw20%

Dynamo Dresden U1959%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niendorfer TSV U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.34

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.36

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.34

Dynamo Dresden U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 80 away

0.97

creates per match

1.55

3.13

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

0.97

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.55

allows per match

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.13

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niendorfer TSV U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Niendorfer TSV U19 or draw

41%

Niendorfer TSV U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19

80%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19

78%

Winning margin

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

9%

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

74%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

39%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

16%

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

90%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

67%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niendorfer TSV U19 at home — creates 0.97, concedes 3.13 · 30 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 0.97 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.55 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

22%

level

20%

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

59%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

N. Hünig← N. Kubitz

71'

C. Michelsen

73'

N. Philipp← M. Timm

78'

A. Tourgaidis← P. Rieckmann

79'

V. KušejPenalty

80'

A. Karabey← A. Hessar

83'

M. Akkus← S. Omar

84'

M. Großer← L. Shubitidze

85'

J. Baum← C. Michelsen

88'

P. Fromm← E. Jeong

Niendorfer

Dynamo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Prohn

73'▲N. Philipp←▼M. Timm

78'▲A. Tourgaidis←▼P. Rieckmann

80'▲A. Karabey←▼A. Hessar

83'▲M. Akkus←▼S. Omar

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

PhilippTourgaidisKarabeyAkkusCevdetKönigWeigand

Manager: M. Lust

57'▲N. Hünig←▼N. Kubitz

84'▲M. Großer←▼L. Shubitidze

85'▲J. Baum←▼C. Michelsen

88'▲P. Fromm←▼E. Jeong

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

HünigGroßerBaumFrommSchurzLebedevKiefer

Match Recap: Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 beat Niendorfer TSV U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 11, 2018.

Goals: C. Michelsen (71'), V. Kušej (79' pen).

The match was played at Sportanlage Sachsenweg in Hamburg.

Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Niendorfer TSV U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19