Dynamo Dresden U19 1–1 Niendorfer TSV U19

Dynamo Dresden U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Niendorfer TSV U19

M. Großer 71'

M. Zoch 56'

12/9/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 14Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1967%

×Draw17%

Niendorfer TSV U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Dresden U19Expected goals in this matchNiendorfer TSV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.25

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.67

Niendorfer TSV U19

1.25

Dynamo Dresden U19 creates 114% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 29 away

2.19

creates per match

0.97

1.54

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.19

Niendorfer TSV U19

0.97

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.54

Niendorfer TSV U19

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Niendorfer TSV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Niendorfer TSV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw

84%

Dynamo Dresden U19 or Niendorfer TSV U19

83%

Draw or Niendorfer TSV U19

33%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

46%

Niendorfer TSV U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

93%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

74%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

49%

Niendorfer TSV U19 1+ goals

71%

Niendorfer TSV U19 2+ goals

36%

Niendorfer TSV U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Niendorfer TSV U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

Niendorfer TSV U19 away — creates 0.97, concedes 3.14 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.19 + Niendorfer TSV U19 defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.67

Niendorfer TSV U19 attack 0.97 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

67%

level

17%

Niendorfer TSV U19 scores more

16%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

56'

61'

71'

80'

80'

89'

A. Karabey← A. Tourgaidis

Dynamo

Niendorfer

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Lust

61'▲E. Jeong←▼J. Jacob

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

JeongLebedevHünigKubitzMitsopoulosSaninBöhse

Manager: A. Prohn

46'▲N. Denis←▼H. Müller

80'▲A. Altuntas←▼M. Zoch

80'▲J. Jaeger←▼S. Omar

89'▲A. Karabey←▼A. Tourgaidis

Niendorfer TSV U19 substitutes

DenisAltuntasJaegerKarabeyHessarSallah

U19 Bundesliga: Dynamo Dresden U19 1–1 Niendorfer TSV U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 and Niendorfer TSV U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on December 9, 2018.

Goals: M. Zoch (56'), M. Großer (71').

The match was played at Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15 in Dresden.

Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Niendorfer TSV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Dynamo Dresden U19 1–1 Niendorfer TSV U19