Nielba Wągrowiec 2–4 Jarota Jarocin: Result & Stats

Nielba Wągrowiec

FT

2 – 4

Jarota Jarocin

8/15/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nielba Wągrowiec45%

×Draw22%

Jarota Jarocin33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nielba WągrowiecExpected goals in this matchJarota Jarocin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.62

Nielba Wągrowiec

1.92

Jarota Jarocin

1.62

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

2.12

creates per match

1.53

1.71

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Nielba Wągrowiec

2.12

Jarota Jarocin

1.53

allows per match

Nielba Wągrowiec

1.71

Jarota Jarocin

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Jarota Jarocin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nielba Wągrowiec ↓

Jarota Jarocin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Nielba Wągrowiec or draw

67%

Nielba Wągrowiec or Jarota Jarocin

78%

Draw or Jarota Jarocin

55%

Winning margin

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+

25%

Jarota Jarocin wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals

85%

Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals

57%

Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals

30%

Jarota Jarocin 1+ goals

80%

Jarota Jarocin 2+ goals

48%

Jarota Jarocin 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)

58%

Jarota Jarocin (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nielba Wągrowiec at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Jarota Jarocin away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.12 + Jarota Jarocin defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.92

Jarota Jarocin attack 1.53 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more

45%

level

22%

Jarota Jarocin scores more

33%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff