Jarota Jarocin 2–0 Nielba Wągrowiec: Result & Stats

Jarota Jarocin

FT

2 – 0

Nielba Wągrowiec

6/6/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jarota Jarocin31%

×Draw22%

Nielba Wągrowiec47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jarota JarocinExpected goals in this matchNielba Wągrowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.92

Jarota Jarocin

1.54

Nielba Wągrowiec

1.92

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.33

creates per match

2.24

1.59

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Jarota Jarocin

1.33

Nielba Wągrowiec

2.24

allows per match

Jarota Jarocin

1.59

Nielba Wągrowiec

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jarota Jarocin+0.00on par

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarota Jarocin ↓

Nielba Wągrowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Jarota Jarocin or draw

53%

Jarota Jarocin or Nielba Wągrowiec

78%

Draw or Nielba Wągrowiec

69%

Winning margin

Jarota Jarocin wins by 2+

15%

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Jarota Jarocin 1+ goals

79%

Jarota Jarocin 2+ goals

45%

Jarota Jarocin 3+ goals

20%

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals

85%

Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals

57%

Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Jarota Jarocin (draw refunded)

40%

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarota Jarocin at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Nielba Wągrowiec away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarota Jarocin attack 1.33 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.24 + Jarota Jarocin defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jarota Jarocin scores more

31%

level

22%

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more

47%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff