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Nielba Wągrowiec vs Gwardia Koszalin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
FT
1 – 0
Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin
4/17/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nielba Wągrowiec42%
×Draw23%
Gwardia Koszalin35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.71
Gwardia Koszalin
1.53

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
2.12
Gwardia Koszalin
1.35

allows per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.71
Gwardia Koszalin
1.29

finishing

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par
Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nielba Wągrowiec ↓

Gwardia Koszalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nielba Wągrowiec or draw
65%
Nielba Wągrowiec or Gwardia Koszalin
77%
Draw or Gwardia Koszalin
58%

Winning margin

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
22%
Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
82%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
51%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
24%
Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals
78%
Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals
45%
Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
55%
Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nielba Wągrowiec at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Gwardia Koszalin away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.12 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.35 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
42%
level
23%
Gwardia Koszalin scores more
35%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nielba Wągrowiec vs Gwardia Koszalin

Nielba Wągrowiec beat Gwardia Koszalin 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka in Wągrowiec.