Gwardia Koszalin 2–2 Nielba Wągrowiec

Gwardia Koszalin

FT

2 – 2

Nielba Wągrowiec

10/3/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwardia Koszalin28%

×Draw22%

Nielba Wągrowiec50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwardia KoszalinExpected goals in this matchNielba Wągrowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.00

Gwardia Koszalin

1.44

Nielba Wągrowiec

2.00

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

2.24

1.76

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Gwardia Koszalin

1.12

Nielba Wągrowiec

2.24

allows per match

Gwardia Koszalin

1.76

Nielba Wągrowiec

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwardia Koszalin ↓

Nielba Wągrowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Gwardia Koszalin or draw

50%

Gwardia Koszalin or Nielba Wągrowiec

78%

Draw or Nielba Wągrowiec

72%

Winning margin

Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+

12%

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals

76%

Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals

42%

Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals

18%

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals

86%

Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals

59%

Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)

36%

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwardia Koszalin at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Nielba Wągrowiec away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.12 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.24 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gwardia Koszalin scores more

28%

level

22%

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more

50%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff