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Nielba Wągrowiec vs Górnik Konin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
FT
4 – 0
Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
8/29/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nielba Wągrowiec54%
×Draw22%
Górnik Konin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.97
Górnik Konin
1.26

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
2.12
Górnik Konin
0.82

allows per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.71
Górnik Konin
1.82

finishing

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par
Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nielba Wągrowiec ↓

Górnik Konin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nielba Wągrowiec or draw
76%
Nielba Wągrowiec or Górnik Konin
78%
Draw or Górnik Konin
46%

Winning margin

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
31%
Górnik Konin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
86%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
58%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
31%
Górnik Konin 1+ goals
72%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
36%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
69%
Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nielba Wągrowiec at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.12 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.97

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
54%
level
22%
Górnik Konin scores more
24%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Nielba Wągrowiec 4–0 Górnik Konin

Nielba Wągrowiec beat Górnik Konin 4-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka in Wągrowiec.