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Górnik Konin vs Nielba Wągrowiec — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
FT
3 – 2
Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
5/8/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Konin21%
×Draw19%
Nielba Wągrowiec60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Konin
1.41
Nielba Wągrowiec
2.45

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 74% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Górnik Konin
1.06
Nielba Wągrowiec
2.24

allows per match

Górnik Konin
2.65
Nielba Wągrowiec
1.76

finishing

Górnik Konin+0.00on par
Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Konin ↓

Nielba Wągrowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Górnik Konin or draw
40%
Górnik Konin or Nielba Wągrowiec
81%
Draw or Nielba Wągrowiec
79%

Winning margin

Górnik Konin wins by 2+
9%
Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Górnik Konin 1+ goals
76%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
41%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
17%
Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
91%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
70%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
26%
Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Konin at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Nielba Wągrowiec away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Konin attack 1.06 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.41

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.24 + Górnik Konin defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Górnik Konin scores more
21%
level
19%
Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
60%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Górnik Konin 3–2 Nielba Wągrowiec

Górnik Konin beat Nielba Wągrowiec 3-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego in Konin.