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Nielba Wągrowiec vs Chemik Police — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
FT
2 – 0
Chemik Police
Chemik Police
9/12/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nielba Wągrowiec64%
×Draw18%
Chemik Police18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nielba Wągrowiec
2.56
Chemik Police
1.29

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 98% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
2.12
Chemik Police
0.88

allows per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.71
Chemik Police
3.00

finishing

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par
Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nielba Wągrowiec ↓

Chemik Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Nielba Wągrowiec or draw
82%
Nielba Wągrowiec or Chemik Police
82%
Draw or Chemik Police
36%

Winning margin

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
43%
Chemik Police wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
92%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
72%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
46%
Chemik Police 1+ goals
72%
Chemik Police 2+ goals
37%
Chemik Police 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
78%
Chemik Police (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nielba Wągrowiec at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.12 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.56

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
64%
level
18%
Chemik Police scores more
18%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nielba Wągrowiec vs Chemik Police

Nielba Wągrowiec beat Chemik Police 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka in Wągrowiec.