Chemik Police 2–6 Nielba Wągrowiec: Result & Stats

Chemik Police

FT

2 – 6

Nielba Wągrowiec

4/30/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chemik Police18%

×Draw19%

Nielba Wągrowiec63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemik PoliceExpected goals in this matchNielba Wągrowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

2.45

Chemik Police

1.26

Nielba Wągrowiec

2.45

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 94% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.76

creates per match

2.24

2.65

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Chemik Police

0.76

Nielba Wągrowiec

2.24

allows per match

Chemik Police

2.65

Nielba Wągrowiec

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemik Police+0.00on par

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemik Police ↓

Nielba Wągrowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Chemik Police or draw

37%

Chemik Police or Nielba Wągrowiec

81%

Draw or Nielba Wągrowiec

82%

Winning margin

Chemik Police wins by 2+

7%

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Chemik Police 1+ goals

72%

Chemik Police 2+ goals

36%

Chemik Police 3+ goals

13%

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals

91%

Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals

70%

Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Chemik Police (draw refunded)

23%

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemik Police at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Nielba Wągrowiec away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemik Police attack 0.76 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.26

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.24 + Chemik Police defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Chemik Police scores more

18%

level

19%

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more

63%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff