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Nielba Wągrowiec vs Bałtyk Koszalin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
FT
1 – 1
Bałtyk Koszalin
Bałtyk Koszalin
11/7/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nielba Wągrowiec47%
×Draw23%
Bałtyk Koszalin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.84
Bałtyk Koszalin
1.46

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
2.12
Bałtyk Koszalin
1.21

allows per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.71
Bałtyk Koszalin
1.56

finishing

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par
Bałtyk Koszalin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nielba Wągrowiec ↓

Bałtyk Koszalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nielba Wągrowiec or draw
69%
Nielba Wągrowiec or Bałtyk Koszalin
77%
Draw or Bałtyk Koszalin
53%

Winning margin

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
25%
Bałtyk Koszalin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
84%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
55%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
28%
Bałtyk Koszalin 1+ goals
77%
Bałtyk Koszalin 2+ goals
43%
Bałtyk Koszalin 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
60%
Bałtyk Koszalin (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nielba Wągrowiec at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Bałtyk Koszalin away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.12 + Bałtyk Koszalin defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.84

Bałtyk Koszalin attack 1.21 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
47%
level
23%
Bałtyk Koszalin scores more
31%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nielba Wągrowiec vs Bałtyk Koszalin

Nielba Wągrowiec and Bałtyk Koszalin drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka in Wągrowiec.