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Bałtyk Koszalin vs Nielba Wągrowiec — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Bałtyk Koszalin
Bałtyk Koszalin
FT
2 – 2
Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
5/29/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Stadion ZOS Bałtyk Koszalin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bałtyk Koszalin35%
×Draw21%
Nielba Wągrowiec44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bałtyk Koszalin
1.79
Nielba Wągrowiec
2.02

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bałtyk Koszalin
1.82
Nielba Wągrowiec
2.24

allows per match

Bałtyk Koszalin
1.79
Nielba Wągrowiec
1.76

finishing

Bałtyk Koszalin+0.00on par
Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bałtyk Koszalin ↓

Nielba Wągrowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bałtyk Koszalin or draw
56%
Bałtyk Koszalin or Nielba Wągrowiec
79%
Draw or Nielba Wągrowiec
65%

Winning margin

Bałtyk Koszalin wins by 2+
18%
Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Bałtyk Koszalin 1+ goals
83%
Bałtyk Koszalin 2+ goals
53%
Bałtyk Koszalin 3+ goals
26%
Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
87%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
60%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Bałtyk Koszalin (draw refunded)
44%
Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bałtyk Koszalin at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Nielba Wągrowiec away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bałtyk Koszalin attack 1.82 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.79

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.24 + Bałtyk Koszalin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bałtyk Koszalin scores more
35%
level
21%
Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
44%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bałtyk Koszalin vs Nielba Wągrowiec

Bałtyk Koszalin and Nielba Wągrowiec drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion ZOS Bałtyk Koszalin in Koszalin.