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Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock — Ekstraklasa 2018

Nieciecza
Nieciecza
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock
4/19/2026EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 29Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nieciecza39%
×Draw25%
Wisla Plock37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nieciecza
1.48
Wisla Plock
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

creates per match

Nieciecza
1.18
Wisla Plock
1.21

allows per match

Nieciecza
1.68
Wisla Plock
1.77

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par
Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Wisla Plock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw
63%
Nieciecza or Wisla Plock
75%
Draw or Wisla Plock
61%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+
18%
Wisla Plock wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals
77%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
43%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
19%
Wisla Plock 1+ goals
76%
Wisla Plock 2+ goals
42%
Wisla Plock 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)
51%
Wisla Plock (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.77 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.18 + Wisla Plock defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.48

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Nieciecza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nieciecza scores more
39%
level
25%
Wisla Plock scores more
37%

Nieciecza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Nieciecza 1–3 Wisla Plock

Wisla Plock beat Nieciecza 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza in Nieciecza.