Nieciecza 2–2 Wisla Plock: Result & Stats | I Liga

Nieciecza

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Wisla Plock

3/2/2024

I Liga · Round 22Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nieciecza47%

×Draw25%

Wisla Plock28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiecieczaExpected goals in this matchWisla Plock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.15

Nieciecza

1.59

Wisla Plock

1.15

Nieciecza creates 38% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

1.72

creates per match

1.21

1.08

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Nieciecza

1.72

Wisla Plock

1.21

allows per match

Nieciecza

1.08

Wisla Plock

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Wisla Plock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw

72%

Nieciecza or Wisla Plock

75%

Draw or Wisla Plock

53%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+

24%

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals

80%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

47%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

21%

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

68%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

32%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

63%

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.72 + Wisla Plock defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Nieciecza defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nieciecza scores more

47%

level

25%

Wisla Plock scores more

28%

Nieciecza at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff