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Nieciecza vs Motor Lublin — I Liga 2018

Nieciecza
Nieciecza
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
8/13/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 4Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nieciecza40%
×Draw27%
Motor Lublin33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nieciecza
1.33
Motor Lublin
1.18

Nieciecza creates 13% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nieciecza
1.72
Motor Lublin
1.28

allows per match

Nieciecza
1.08
Motor Lublin
0.94

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par
Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Motor Lublin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw
67%
Nieciecza or Motor Lublin
73%
Draw or Motor Lublin
60%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+
18%
Motor Lublin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals
74%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
38%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
15%
Motor Lublin 1+ goals
69%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
33%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)
55%
Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.72 + Motor Lublin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.33

Motor Lublin attack 1.28 + Nieciecza defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nieciecza scores more
40%
level
27%
Motor Lublin scores more
33%

Nieciecza at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Nieciecza 0–2 Motor Lublin

Motor Lublin beat Nieciecza 2-0 in I Liga on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica in Nieciecza.