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Motor Lublin vs Nieciecza — Ekstraklasa 2018

Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
9/14/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 8Motor Lublin Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Motor Lublin47%
×Draw24%
Nieciecza29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motor Lublin
1.66
Nieciecza
1.25

Motor Lublin creates 33% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Motor Lublin
1.44
Nieciecza
1.15

allows per match

Motor Lublin
1.35
Nieciecza
1.88

finishing

Motor Lublin+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Lublin ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Motor Lublin or draw
71%
Motor Lublin or Nieciecza
76%
Draw or Nieciecza
53%

Winning margin

Motor Lublin wins by 2+
25%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Motor Lublin 1+ goals
81%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
49%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
23%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
71%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
36%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
62%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Lublin attack 1.44 + Nieciecza defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.66

Nieciecza attack 1.15 + Motor Lublin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Motor Lublin scores more
47%
level
24%
Nieciecza scores more
29%

Motor Lublin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motor Lublin vs Nieciecza

Motor Lublin and Nieciecza drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Motor Lublin Arena in Lublin.