Nieciecza 1–4 Miedz Legnica: Result & Stats

Nieciecza

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Miedz Legnica

7/29/2023

I Liga · Round 2Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Nieciecza44%

×Draw26%

Miedz Legnica30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiecieczaExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.16

Nieciecza

1.45

Miedz Legnica

1.16

Nieciecza creates 25% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 105 away

1.72

creates per match

1.23

1.08

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Nieciecza

1.72

Miedz Legnica

1.23

allows per match

Nieciecza

1.08

Miedz Legnica

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw

70%

Nieciecza or Miedz Legnica

74%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

56%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+

21%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals

77%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

42%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

18%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

69%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

32%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

59%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.72 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.45

Miedz Legnica attack 1.23 + Nieciecza defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nieciecza scores more

44%

level

26%

Miedz Legnica scores more

30%

Nieciecza at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff