Miedz Legnica 2–2 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Miedz Legnica

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Nieciecza

12/18/2023

I Liga · Round 19Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Miedz Legnica42%

×Draw25%

Nieciecza33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedz LegnicaExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.32

Miedz Legnica

1.52

Nieciecza

1.32

Miedz Legnica creates 15% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 103 away

1.83

creates per match

1.50

1.15

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Miedz Legnica

1.83

Nieciecza

1.50

allows per match

Miedz Legnica

1.15

Nieciecza

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw

67%

Miedz Legnica or Nieciecza

75%

Draw or Nieciecza

58%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

21%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

78%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

45%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

20%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

73%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

38%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

56%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 102 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.83 + Nieciecza defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nieciecza attack 1.50 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more

42%

level

25%

Nieciecza scores more

33%

Miedz Legnica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff