Nieciecza 2–1 Jagiellonia: Result & Stats

Nieciecza

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jagiellonia

W. Biedrzycki 50' (pen)

P. Wlazło 44' (pen)

P. Mystkowski 70'

2/4/2022

Ekstraklasa · Round 20Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Nieciecza37%

×Draw24%

Jagiellonia39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiecieczaExpected goals in this matchJagiellonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.55

Nieciecza

1.51

Jagiellonia

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

1.29

creates per match

1.45

1.66

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Nieciecza

1.29

Jagiellonia

1.45

allows per match

Nieciecza

1.66

Jagiellonia

1.73

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Nieciecza+0.16scores more

Jagiellonia+0.07on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Jagiellonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw

61%

Nieciecza or Jagiellonia

76%

Draw or Jagiellonia

63%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+

18%

Jagiellonia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals

78%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

44%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

19%

Jagiellonia 1+ goals

79%

Jagiellonia 2+ goals

46%

Jagiellonia 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

49%

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.29 + Jagiellonia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Jagiellonia attack 1.45 + Nieciecza defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nieciecza scores more

37%

level

24%

Jagiellonia scores more

39%

Jagiellonia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

97

W. Biedrzycki

Nieciecza · D

8.0

Match Events

13'

Bartlomiej Wdowik

38'

Martin Pospisil

42'

Wiktor BiedrzyckiPenalty awarded

44'

P. WlazłoPenalty

45+4'

Miłosz Matysik

48'

Zlatan Alomerović

50'

W. BiedrzyckiPenalty

57'

K. Struski← M. Pospíšil

57'

P. Mystkowski← M. Nalepa

57'

B. Nastić← B. Wdowik

60'

B. Bida← P. Olszewski

62'

R. Gergel← P. Wlazło

67'

Michal Bezpalec

70'

P. Mystkowski↳ F. Černych

73'

D. Domgjonas← K. Śpiewak

79'

Sebastian Bonecki

80'

J. Lutostanski← A. Trubeha

85'

M. Hubínek← M. Bezpalec

85'

B. Kukułowicz← S. Štefánik

86'

Fedor Černych

90+5'

Marcin Grabowski

90+6'

Taras Romanczuk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiecieczaJagiellonia

Overview

36%Possession64%

6Total Shots13

4Corners7

17Fouls19

Shots

6Total Shots13

2On Target5

2Off Target5

2Blocked3

3Inside Box10

3Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

268Total Passes478

162Accurate Passes376

60%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls19

3Yellow Cards6

2Offsides7