Jagiellonia 0–4 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Jagiellonia

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Nieciecza

K. Kubica 75', 17'

M. Fassbender 45'

K. Zapolnik 42' (pen)

7/18/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 1Chorten Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Jagiellonia49%

×Draw22%

Nieciecza29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JagielloniaExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.40

Jagiellonia

1.89

Nieciecza

1.40

Jagiellonia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 12 away

1.93

creates per match

1.42

1.39

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Jagiellonia

1.93

Nieciecza

1.42

allows per match

Jagiellonia

1.39

Nieciecza

1.85

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Jagiellonia+0.13scores more

Nieciecza-0.09on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Jagiellonia or draw

71%

Jagiellonia or Nieciecza

78%

Draw or Nieciecza

51%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia wins by 2+

27%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jagiellonia 1+ goals

85%

Jagiellonia 2+ goals

56%

Jagiellonia 3+ goals

29%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

75%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

41%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)

63%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.85 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia attack 1.93 + Nieciecza defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.89

Nieciecza attack 1.42 + Jagiellonia defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jagiellonia scores more

49%

level

22%

Nieciecza scores more

29%

Jagiellonia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

K. Kubica

Nieciecza · M

8.7

Match Events

17'

K. Kubica

40'

Kamil ZapolnikPenalty confirmed

42'

K. ZapolnikPenalty

45'

M. Fassbender↳ M. Ambrosiewicz

61'

A. Trubeha← K. Zapolnik

62'

Jesús Imaz

62'

C. Polak← B. Wdowik

62'

A. Pozo← L. Prip

62'

D. Drachal← L. Flach

69'

R. Boboc← I. Strzalek

69'

D. Biniek← D. Hilbrycht

70'

D. Rallis← A. Pululu

75'

K. Kubica↳ G. Isik

76'

A. Cantero← O. Pietuszewski

87'

W. Jakubik← M. Fassbender

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JagielloniaNieciecza

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots18

1.00Expected Goals (xG)2.40

3Corners8

7Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots18

4On Target6

5Off Target4

4Blocked8

10Inside Box11

3Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

543Total Passes311

469Accurate Passes226

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides1

Ekstraklasa: Jagiellonia 0–4 Nieciecza

Nieciecza beat Jagiellonia 4-0 in Ekstraklasa on July 18, 2025.

Goals: K. Kubica (17', 75'), K. Zapolnik (42' pen), M. Fassbender (45').

Jagiellonia controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 18.

The match was played at Chorten Arena in Bialystok.

Jagiellonia vs Nieciecza — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ekstraklasa: Jagiellonia 0–4 Nieciecza