Nieciecza 0–3 GKS Katowice: Result & Stats

Nieciecza

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

GKS Katowice

E. Markovic 89', 76'

L. Klemenz 13'

10/31/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 14Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nieciecza37%

×Draw24%

GKS Katowice38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiecieczaExpected goals in this matchGKS Katowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.50

Nieciecza

1.48

GKS Katowice

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

1.24

creates per match

1.19

1.82

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Nieciecza

1.24

GKS Katowice

1.19

allows per match

Nieciecza

1.82

GKS Katowice

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

GKS Katowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw

62%

Nieciecza or GKS Katowice

76%

Draw or GKS Katowice

63%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+

18%

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals

77%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

43%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

19%

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

78%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

44%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

49%

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.24 + GKS Katowice defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

GKS Katowice attack 1.19 + Nieciecza defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nieciecza scores more

37%

level

24%

GKS Katowice scores more

38%

GKS Katowice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

R. Straczek

GKS Katowice · G

8.3

Match Events

13'

L. Klemenz↳ M. Wedrychowski

45'

Adam Zreľák

61'

D. Hilbrycht← R. Boboc

61'

A. Trubeha← K. Kubica

62'

E. Markovic← M. Wedrychowski

62'

I. Shkurin← A. Zrelak

64'

Ilia Shkurin

68'

Kamil Zapolnik

76'

E. Markovic↳ B. Nowak

77'

R. Kurzawa← M. Ambrosiewicz

77'

J. Jimenez← S. Guerrero

85'

A. Blad← B. Nowak

85'

F. Rejczyk← K. Lukasiak

89'

E. Markovic↳ I. Shkurin

90'

D. Biniek← I. Strzalek

90+1'

G. Rogala← B. Galan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiecieczaGKS

Overview

66%Possession34%

18Total Shots11

2.08Expected Goals (xG)2.15

7Corners2

13Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots11

7On Target7

6Off Target3

5Blocked1

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

507Total Passes277

425Accurate Passes201

84%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4