Nieciecza 2–2 GKS Katowice: Result & Stats | I Liga

Nieciecza

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

GKS Katowice

A. Radwański 90+3'

J. Nowakowski 62'

S. Bergier 21'

G. Janiszewski 8'

4/21/2024

I Liga · Round 28Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nieciecza49%

×Draw24%

GKS Katowice27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiecieczaExpected goals in this matchGKS Katowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.20

Nieciecza

1.68

GKS Katowice

1.20

Nieciecza creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.86

creates per match

1.10

1.29

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Nieciecza

1.86

GKS Katowice

1.10

allows per match

Nieciecza

1.29

GKS Katowice

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

GKS Katowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw

73%

Nieciecza or GKS Katowice

76%

Draw or GKS Katowice

51%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+

26%

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals

81%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

50%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

24%

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

70%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

34%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

64%

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.86 + GKS Katowice defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

GKS Katowice attack 1.10 + Nieciecza defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nieciecza scores more

49%

level

24%

GKS Katowice scores more

27%

Nieciecza at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

21'

37'

41'

45+3'

46'

A. Dombrovskyi← M. Ambrosiewicz

46'

J. Nowakowski← A. Trubeha

53'

62'

68'

76'

77'

80'

W. Jakubik← J. Branecki

80'

M. Mak← A. Błąd

84'

B. Wacławek← K. Karasek

86'

B. Baranowicz← S. Shibata

90+1'

S. Krawczyk← S. Bergier

90+3'

A. Radwański

Nieciecza

GKS

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Brosz

46'▲A. Dombrovskyi←▼M. Ambrosiewicz

46'▲J. Nowakowski←▼A. Trubeha

68'▲J. Wróbel←▼M. Wolski

80'▲W. Jakubik←▼J. Branecki

84'▲B. Wacławek←▼K. Karasek

Nieciecza substitutes

DombrovskyiNowakowskiWróbelJakubikWacławekKasperkiewiczBahonkoTopórFaßbender

Manager: R. Górak

80'▲M. Mak←▼A. Błąd

86'▲B. Baranowicz←▼S. Shibata

90+1'▲S. Krawczyk←▼S. Bergier

GKS Katowice substitutes

MakBaranowiczKrawczykArakCwielongPietrzykSzczukaTrepka