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Nieciecza vs Garbarnia Kraków — I Liga 2018

Nieciecza
Nieciecza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
5/4/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 32Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nieciecza62%
×Draw21%
Garbarnia Kraków17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nieciecza
1.95
Garbarnia Kraków
0.90

Nieciecza creates 117% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nieciecza
1.72
Garbarnia Kraków
0.71

allows per match

Nieciecza
1.08
Garbarnia Kraków
2.18

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw
83%
Nieciecza or Garbarnia Kraków
79%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
38%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+
37%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals
86%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
58%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
31%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
59%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
23%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)
79%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.72 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.95

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.71 + Nieciecza defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Nieciecza scores more
62%
level
21%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
17%

Nieciecza at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Nieciecza 1–0 Garbarnia Kraków

Nieciecza beat Garbarnia Kraków 1-0 in I Liga on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza).