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Garbarnia Kraków vs Nieciecza — I Liga 2018

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
10/19/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 15Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków20%
×Draw26%
Nieciecza54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
0.84
Nieciecza
1.54

Nieciecza creates 83% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
0.47
Nieciecza
1.50

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.59
Nieciecza
1.22

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
46%
Garbarnia Kraków or Nieciecza
74%
Draw or Nieciecza
80%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
6%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
57%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
21%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
5%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
79%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
45%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
28%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.47 + Nieciecza defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.84

Nieciecza attack 1.50 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
20%
level
26%
Nieciecza scores more
54%

Nieciecza at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garbarnia Kraków vs Nieciecza

Nieciecza beat Garbarnia Kraków 3-1 in I Liga on October 19, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków).