Nieciecza 2–1 Bełchatów: Result & Stats | I Liga

Nieciecza

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bełchatów

V. Gutkovskis 74', 1'

B. Biel 64'

10/19/2019

I Liga · Round 14Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Nieciecza53%

×Draw26%

Bełchatów22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiecieczaExpected goals in this matchBełchatów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.90

Nieciecza

1.55

Bełchatów

0.90

Nieciecza creates 72% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 33 away

1.72

creates per match

0.73

1.06

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Nieciecza

1.72

Bełchatów

0.73

allows per match

Nieciecza

1.06

Bełchatów

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Bełchatów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Bełchatów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw

78%

Nieciecza or Bełchatów

74%

Draw or Bełchatów

47%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+

27%

Bełchatów wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals

79%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

46%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

20%

Bełchatów 1+ goals

59%

Bełchatów 2+ goals

23%

Bełchatów 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

71%

Bełchatów (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.06 · 96 matches

Bełchatów away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.72 + Bełchatów defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.55

Bełchatów attack 0.73 + Nieciecza defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nieciecza scores more

53%

level

26%

Bełchatów scores more

22%

Nieciecza at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

V. Gutkovskis

32'

P. Wlazlo

46'

M. Bezpalec← P. Wlazło

46'

É. Thiakane← V. Putin

62'

D. Kocyla← M. Mas

63'

64'

74'

75'

77'

K. Wołkowicz← M. Marzec

80'

R. Gergel← J. Kiełb

83'

E. Thiakane

87'

V. Gutkovskis

Nieciecza

Bełchatów

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: P. Mandrysz

46'▲M. Bezpalec←▼P. Wlazło

75'▲P. Mišák←▼F. Purece

80'▲R. Gergel←▼J. Kiełb

Nieciecza substitutes

BezpalecMišákGergel

Manager: A. Derbin

46'▲É. Thiakane←▼V. Putin

62'▲D. Kocyla←▼M. Mas

77'▲K. Wołkowicz←▼M. Marzec

Bełchatów substitutes

ThiakaneKocylaWołkowicz