Bełchatów 1–2 Nieciecza: Result & Stats | I Liga

Bełchatów

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Nieciecza

M. Mas 8'

K. Śpiewak 85'

R. Gergel 65' (pen)

3/12/2021

I Liga · Round 20Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Bełchatów30%

×Draw26%

Nieciecza44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BełchatówExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.44

Bełchatów

1.14

Nieciecza

1.44

Nieciecza creates 26% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 100 away

1.06

creates per match

1.50

1.39

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Bełchatów

1.06

Nieciecza

1.50

allows per match

Bełchatów

1.39

Nieciecza

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bełchatów+0.00on par

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bełchatów ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bełchatów or draw

56%

Bełchatów or Nieciecza

74%

Draw or Nieciecza

70%

Winning margin

Bełchatów wins by 2+

12%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bełchatów 1+ goals

68%

Bełchatów 2+ goals

32%

Bełchatów 3+ goals

11%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

76%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

42%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bełchatów (draw refunded)

41%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bełchatów at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bełchatów attack 1.06 + Nieciecza defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Nieciecza attack 1.50 + Bełchatów defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bełchatów scores more

30%

level

26%

Nieciecza scores more

44%

Nieciecza at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

40'

58'

63'

64'

65'

R. GergelPenalty

67'

P. Winsztal

67'

M. Grzelak← W. Gancarczyk

67'

F. Laskowski← J. Bator

78'

A. Radwanski

81'

M. Hubínek← A. Radwański

85'

K. Śpiewak

89'

J. Staszak← D. Hilbrycht

89'

S. Łapiński← B. Żurek

90+2'

M. Bezpalec

90'

M. Bezpalec← M. Zeman

90'

P. Czarnowski← R. Gergel

Bełchatów

Nieciecza

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mas

Manager: M. Węglewski

58'▲P. Winsztal←▼M. Mas

67'▲M. Grzelak←▼W. Gancarczyk

67'▲F. Laskowski←▼J. Bator

89'▲J. Staszak←▼D. Hilbrycht

89'▲S. Łapiński←▼B. Żurek

Bełchatów substitutes

WinsztalGrzelakLaskowskiStaszakŁapiński

Manager: M. Lewandowski

63'▲K. Śpiewak←▼P. Żyra

81'▲M. Hubínek←▼A. Radwański

90'▲M. Bezpalec←▼M. Zeman

90'▲P. Czarnowski←▼R. Gergel

Nieciecza substitutes

ŚpiewakHubínekBezpalecCzarnowski

I Liga: Bełchatów 1–2 Nieciecza

Nieciecza beat Bełchatów 2-1 in I Liga on March 12, 2021.

Goals: M. Mas (8'), R. Gergel (65' pen), K. Śpiewak (85').

The match was played at Stadion GKS-u in Bełchatów.

Bełchatów vs Nieciecza — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Bełchatów 1–2 Nieciecza