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Niarry Tally vs Douanes — Ligue 1 2019

Niarry Tally
Niarry Tally
FT
2 – 1
Douanes
Douanes
1/9/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Centre Technique FIFA Jules-François Bocandé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Niarry Tally38%
×Draw33%
Douanes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niarry Tally
0.96
Douanes
0.78

Niarry Tally creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 45 away

creates per match

Niarry Tally
0.89
Douanes
0.76

allows per match

Niarry Tally
0.79
Douanes
1.02

finishing

Niarry Tally+0.00on par
Douanes+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niarry Tally ↓

Douanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Niarry Tally or draw
72%
Niarry Tally or Douanes
67%
Draw or Douanes
62%

Winning margin

Niarry Tally wins by 2+
14%
Douanes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Niarry Tally 1+ goals
62%
Niarry Tally 2+ goals
25%
Niarry Tally 3+ goals
7%
Douanes 1+ goals
54%
Douanes 2+ goals
18%
Douanes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Niarry Tally (draw refunded)
57%
Douanes (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niarry Tally at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Douanes away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niarry Tally attack 0.89 + Douanes defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Douanes attack 0.76 + Niarry Tally defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Niarry Tally scores more
38%
level
33%
Douanes scores more
28%

Niarry Tally at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Niarry Tally will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Niarry Tally 2 – 1 Douanes

Niarry Tally beat Douanes 2-1 in Ligue 1 on January 9, 2021.

The match was played at Centre Technique FIFA Jules-François Bocandé in Toubab Dialao.