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Douanes vs Niarry Tally — Ligue 1 2019

Douanes
Douanes
FT
1 – 1
Niarry Tally
Niarry Tally
5/8/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade Municipal De Ndiarème

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Douanes41%
×Draw30%
Niarry Tally28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douanes
1.14
Niarry Tally
0.89

Douanes creates 28% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 20 away

creates per match

Douanes
0.83
Niarry Tally
0.80

allows per match

Douanes
0.98
Niarry Tally
1.45

finishing

Douanes+0.00on par
Niarry Tally+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douanes ↓

Niarry Tally →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Douanes or draw
72%
Douanes or Niarry Tally
70%
Draw or Niarry Tally
59%

Winning margin

Douanes wins by 2+
17%
Niarry Tally wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Douanes 1+ goals
68%
Douanes 2+ goals
32%
Douanes 3+ goals
11%
Niarry Tally 1+ goals
59%
Niarry Tally 2+ goals
22%
Niarry Tally 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Douanes (draw refunded)
59%
Niarry Tally (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douanes at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

Niarry Tally away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douanes attack 0.83 + Niarry Tally defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.14

Niarry Tally attack 0.80 + Douanes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Douanes scores more
41%
level
30%
Niarry Tally scores more
28%

Douanes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Douanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Douanes vs Niarry Tally

Douanes and Niarry Tally drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal De Ndiarème in Dakar.