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Niarry Tally vs Casa Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Niarry Tally
Niarry Tally
FT
0 – 0
Casa Sport
Casa Sport
6/27/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Amadou Barry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Niarry Tally37%
×Draw33%
Casa Sport29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niarry Tally
0.94
Casa Sport
0.80

Niarry Tally creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

creates per match

Niarry Tally
0.89
Casa Sport
0.81

allows per match

Niarry Tally
0.79
Casa Sport
0.99

finishing

Niarry Tally+0.00on par
Casa Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niarry Tally ↓

Casa Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Niarry Tally or draw
71%
Niarry Tally or Casa Sport
67%
Draw or Casa Sport
63%

Winning margin

Niarry Tally wins by 2+
14%
Casa Sport wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Niarry Tally 1+ goals
61%
Niarry Tally 2+ goals
24%
Niarry Tally 3+ goals
7%
Casa Sport 1+ goals
55%
Casa Sport 2+ goals
19%
Casa Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Niarry Tally (draw refunded)
56%
Casa Sport (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niarry Tally at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Casa Sport away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niarry Tally attack 0.89 + Casa Sport defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Casa Sport attack 0.81 + Niarry Tally defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Niarry Tally scores more
37%
level
33%
Casa Sport scores more
29%

Niarry Tally at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Niarry Tally will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niarry Tally vs Casa Sport

Niarry Tally and Casa Sport drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Amadou Barry in Guédiawaye.