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Casa Sport vs Niarry Tally — Ligue 1 2019

Casa Sport
Casa Sport
FT
3 – 1
Niarry Tally
Niarry Tally
2/27/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade Aline Sitoé Diatta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Casa Sport49%
×Draw30%
Niarry Tally21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Sport
1.23
Niarry Tally
0.69

Casa Sport creates 78% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

creates per match

Casa Sport
1.02
Niarry Tally
0.80

allows per match

Casa Sport
0.57
Niarry Tally
1.45

finishing

Casa Sport+0.00on par
Niarry Tally+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Sport ↓

Niarry Tally →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Casa Sport or draw
79%
Casa Sport or Niarry Tally
70%
Draw or Niarry Tally
51%

Winning margin

Casa Sport wins by 2+
22%
Niarry Tally wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Casa Sport 1+ goals
71%
Casa Sport 2+ goals
35%
Casa Sport 3+ goals
13%
Niarry Tally 1+ goals
50%
Niarry Tally 2+ goals
15%
Niarry Tally 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Casa Sport (draw refunded)
70%
Niarry Tally (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.57 · 89 matches

Niarry Tally away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Sport attack 1.02 + Niarry Tally defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Niarry Tally attack 0.80 + Casa Sport defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Casa Sport scores more
49%
level
30%
Niarry Tally scores more
21%

Casa Sport at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Casa Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casa Sport vs Niarry Tally

Casa Sport beat Niarry Tally 3-1 in Ligue 1 on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Aline Sitoé Diatta in Ziguinchor.