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Ngom Ajdabiya vs Khaleej Sart — Premier League 2019

Ngom Ajdabiya
Ngom Ajdabiya
FT
0 – 1
Khaleej Sart
Khaleej Sart
5/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ngom Ajdabiya32%
×Draw29%
Khaleej Sart39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngom Ajdabiya
1.06
Khaleej Sart
1.20

Khaleej Sart creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ngom Ajdabiya
0.55
Khaleej Sart
0.95

allows per match

Ngom Ajdabiya
1.45
Khaleej Sart
1.58

finishing

Ngom Ajdabiya+0.00on par
Khaleej Sart+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngom Ajdabiya ↓

Khaleej Sart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ngom Ajdabiya or draw
61%
Ngom Ajdabiya or Khaleej Sart
71%
Draw or Khaleej Sart
68%

Winning margin

Ngom Ajdabiya wins by 2+
12%
Khaleej Sart wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ngom Ajdabiya 1+ goals
65%
Ngom Ajdabiya 2+ goals
29%
Ngom Ajdabiya 3+ goals
9%
Khaleej Sart 1+ goals
70%
Khaleej Sart 2+ goals
34%
Khaleej Sart 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ngom Ajdabiya (draw refunded)
45%
Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngom Ajdabiya at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Khaleej Sart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngom Ajdabiya attack 0.55 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.06

Khaleej Sart attack 0.95 + Ngom Ajdabiya defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ngom Ajdabiya scores more
32%
level
29%
Khaleej Sart scores more
39%

Khaleej Sart at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khaleej Sart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ngom Ajdabiya vs Khaleej Sart

Khaleej Sart beat Ngom Ajdabiya 1-0 in Premier League on May 4, 2021.