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Khaleej Sart vs Ngom Ajdabiya — Premier League 2019

Khaleej Sart
Khaleej Sart
FT
2 – 1
Ngom Ajdabiya
Ngom Ajdabiya
7/18/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Khaleej Sart55%
×Draw25%
Ngom Ajdabiya20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khaleej Sart
1.62
Ngom Ajdabiya
0.88

Khaleej Sart creates 84% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 11 away

creates per match

Khaleej Sart
1.42
Ngom Ajdabiya
0.55

allows per match

Khaleej Sart
1.21
Ngom Ajdabiya
1.82

finishing

Khaleej Sart+0.00on par
Ngom Ajdabiya+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khaleej Sart ↓

Ngom Ajdabiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khaleej Sart or draw
80%
Khaleej Sart or Ngom Ajdabiya
75%
Draw or Ngom Ajdabiya
45%

Winning margin

Khaleej Sart wins by 2+
29%
Ngom Ajdabiya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Khaleej Sart 1+ goals
80%
Khaleej Sart 2+ goals
48%
Khaleej Sart 3+ goals
22%
Ngom Ajdabiya 1+ goals
59%
Ngom Ajdabiya 2+ goals
22%
Ngom Ajdabiya 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)
73%
Ngom Ajdabiya (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khaleej Sart at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Ngom Ajdabiya away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khaleej Sart attack 1.42 + Ngom Ajdabiya defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.62

Ngom Ajdabiya attack 0.55 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Khaleej Sart scores more
55%
level
25%
Ngom Ajdabiya scores more
20%

Khaleej Sart at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Khaleej Sart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Khaleej Sart 2–1 Ngom Ajdabiya

Khaleej Sart beat Ngom Ajdabiya 2-1 in Premier League on July 18, 2021.