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Ngezi Platinum vs Simba Bhora — Premier Soccer League 2026

Ngezi Platinum
Ngezi Platinum
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Simba Bhora
Simba Bhora
10/18/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Ngezi Platinum47%
×Draw29%
Simba Bhora23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngezi Platinum
1.25
Simba Bhora
0.78

Ngezi Platinum creates 60% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 62 away

creates per match

Ngezi Platinum
1.56
Simba Bhora
0.94

allows per match

Ngezi Platinum
0.63
Simba Bhora
0.95

finishing

Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par
Simba Bhora+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngezi Platinum ↓

Simba Bhora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ngezi Platinum or draw
77%
Ngezi Platinum or Simba Bhora
71%
Draw or Simba Bhora
53%

Winning margin

Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+
22%
Simba Bhora wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals
71%
Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals
36%
Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals
13%
Simba Bhora 1+ goals
54%
Simba Bhora 2+ goals
18%
Simba Bhora 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)
67%
Simba Bhora (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngezi Platinum at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.63 · 97 matches

Simba Bhora away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngezi Platinum attack 1.56 + Simba Bhora defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Simba Bhora attack 0.94 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ngezi Platinum scores more
47%
level
29%
Simba Bhora scores more
23%

Ngezi Platinum at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ngezi Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Ngezi Platinum 2–1 Simba Bhora

Ngezi Platinum beat Simba Bhora 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on October 18, 2025.