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Ngezi Platinum vs Sheasham — Premier Soccer League 2026

Ngezi Platinum
Ngezi Platinum
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sheasham
Sheasham
11/8/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 31Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ngezi Platinum57%
×Draw27%
Sheasham16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngezi Platinum
1.43
Sheasham
0.61

Ngezi Platinum creates 134% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ngezi Platinum
1.56
Sheasham
0.59

allows per match

Ngezi Platinum
0.63
Sheasham
1.29

finishing

Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par
Sheasham+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngezi Platinum ↓

Sheasham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ngezi Platinum or draw
84%
Ngezi Platinum or Sheasham
73%
Draw or Sheasham
43%

Winning margin

Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+
29%
Sheasham wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals
76%
Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals
42%
Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals
17%
Sheasham 1+ goals
46%
Sheasham 2+ goals
13%
Sheasham 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)
78%
Sheasham (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngezi Platinum at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.63 · 97 matches

Sheasham away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngezi Platinum attack 1.56 + Sheasham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sheasham attack 0.59 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ngezi Platinum scores more
57%
level
27%
Sheasham scores more
16%

Ngezi Platinum at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ngezi Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ngezi Platinum vs Sheasham

Ngezi Platinum beat Sheasham 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.